Boot up: Microsoft delays China debut for Windows Phone 7, Apple's US HTC battle postponed, and more

The HTC Titan, running Windows Phone 7.5

A quick burst of 11 links for you to chew over, as picked by the Technology team

How the iPad 2 became my favorite computer >> Harry McCracken

" I think it's possible to use an iPad as one's primary device for professional-level content creation. Actually, scratch that. I'm positive it's possible - because I've been doing it for the past three months, and I've been having a really good time. "This hasn't been one of those experiments-for-the-sake-of-experimentation in which someone temporarily forsakes a PC for another device in order to write about the experience. No, I've been using the iPad for my daily activities-running Technologizer, writing for TIME, CNET, and AllBusiness.com, and more - because I find it to be the preferable tool in multiple respects. I've been using it about 80 percent of the time, and using my MacBook Air about 20 percent of the time. I have no desire to go back." That's using ZaggFolio, which is a really good keyboard for the iPad. Otherwise it would just be "reading and light productivity". See the pic with the article.

Microsoft Research: spammers act just like HIV virus in avoiding filters >> threatpost

"A report from Microsoft Research in honor of World AIDS Day yesterday described how Microsoft Researchers David Heckerman and Jonathan Carlson were called upon to help AIDS researchers analyze data about how the human immune system attacks the HIV virus using technology and algorithms Microsoft had developed to fight spam e-mail in the company's Hotmail, Outlook and Exchange e-mail products."

Clever game pricing, not just games, is key to Vita's success >> Eurogamer.net

"The world is a very different place now than it was when DS and PSP launched, when there was no such thing as an iPhone, let alone any real notion of games that could be easily downloaded in seconds for pennies. "Apple's rampant, rapid growth in handheld gaming has been astonishing and has caught traditional console makers completely off-guard. And what must really stick in Nintendo and Sony's craw is not Apple's boast of making the most popular portable gaming device in the world (a crafty spin, since most don't buy iPod Touch primarily as a games system), but that it's achieved it without even trying."

Anonymising medical data properly >> Ross Anderson

"I will be talking in London on Wednesday at a workshop on Anonymity, Privacy, and Open Data about the difficulty of anonymising medical records properly. I'll be on a panel with Kieron O'Hara who wrote a report on open data for the Cabinet Office earlier this year, and a spokesman from the ICO." Professor Ross Anderson is always worth listening to. Get along there.

RIM's faux BES for iOS and Android: Too little, too late | Mobile Technology - InfoWorld

"What's not been said in the immediate press release-based news coverage is RIM's careful statement that its mobile device management (MDM) tool will implement only those "inherent" capabilities of iOS and Android. Translation: None of the stuff that IT really likes about BES, such as its 500-plus security policies and military-level encryption, will apply to iOS and Android devices. RIM is doing nothing to advance iOS or Android security. "So why bother with Mobile Fusion? After all, dozens of MDM vendors support the "inherent" iOS and Android security capabilities. And a good half-dozen strong MDM providers offer proven, innovative, and value-added MDM tools. "Any company that now supports iOS or Android devices already deals with two MDM consoles: one for BlackBerry, and one for the rest. The benefit of having a single console is long gone." Oh, RIM, you.. do this a lot.

ITC postpones ruling on Apple's first complaint against HTC to December 14 >> FOSS Patents

The ITC has put off a decision about Apple v HTC until 14 December; it's got a heavy caseload. "Whatever the outcome will be, this is still the early stage of Apple's assertions of intellectual property rights against Android. It's not going to be the end for either party's aspirations. If there is an import ban, the key question will be what implications a possible workaround (which HTC and Google are sure to announce) will have."

Dell drops Streak 7, backs out of Android tablets in US >> Electronista

In October, we linked to V3 who pointed out that Dell was "gearing up to launch Windows 8 devices as Android disappoints". You now can't buy the Streak 7 online, and the Streak 5 has been axed. Dell however "remains committed to the mobility market". As it's not doing Windows Phones, or Android tablets, what's left there exactly? Oh, Windows 8 tablets. Next year. And do read the comments: "the developer community will support it." (As Dell, they expect, won't.)

Why Apple will be the #1 computer maker in 2012 >> TechPinions

"We are hearing that Microsoft's fee for Windows 8 tablet version could be as high as $68. If that is true, right off the top the BOM costs of Windows 8 tablets will most likely force prices higher than Apple's low-end iPad is today. And if Apple starts lowering their prices in 2013 as I suspect they will, Windows 8 tablets would be at premium pricing. "Also, while Microsoft and Intel and their partners are excited about ultrabooks, their current pricing is too high for consumers. ... "And even if Android tablets start gaining market share in consumer markets in the future, most of them are coming from non-PC vendors. The major PC vendors are winding down their Android tablet programs and all the big guys will be backing Windows 8 by the end of 2012. They must hope that Windows 8 tablet is a hit for this to give them any market share boost over Apple." That Windows tablet licence price is higher than that for Windows on OEM PCs now.

Microsoft Delays Windows Phone 7 in China to First Half 2012 | PCWorld

"Microsoft expects its Windows Phone 7 mobile operating system to launch in China during the first half of 2012, rather than in late 2011 as originally planned, the company said Saturday. "The US software giant is working to 'ensure local citizens have a great experience with Windows Phones', and is working closely with its partners in China to determine through what channels and when Windows Phones will be available regionally, it said in a statement." It's not as if Windows Phone has been in development since 2008, or that there are any major competitors already selling products there, so not to worry.

Google and the UK Citizens Advice Bureau - an uncomfortable alliance >> Tim Anderson's ITWriting

Tim Anderson goes hunting for the booklet advertised as being available from the Citizens Advice Bureau about being safe online. The physical booklet, not the web site.

Working at the Death Star >> Blogspot

"So, rather than host our shield generator safely inside the Death Star, you want us to contract it out to an external supplier based on a forest moon inhabited by hostile and deeply annoying midget bears?" "It's very cheap."

Free for all? Why mobile operators fear the end of phone calls

Onlookers film and photograph a burning car during the riots in London. They might have then circulated it for free. Photograph: Michael Bowles/Rex Features

The August riots pushed the popularity of BlackBerry Messenger into the public consciousness, with the teenagers' mobile (or "mobe") of choice revealing itself as the perfect tool for organising spontaneous – er – mobbing.

Until the chaos erupted, I suspect most of BlackBerry's suit-wearing users, who rely on the phones for their office email, had little idea that the gadgets had taken off with such a different demographic.

But those without companies to pay their phone bills have found a way to get something for almost nothing – and legally. Armed with an unlocked, secondhand BlackBerry and a SIM-only contract from T-Mobile costing just over £10 a month, BBM (BlackBerry Messenger) messages are free and unlimited. If all your friends are messaging, there is no need to spend any money at all on calls and texts.

The way we use our phones is a neat example of a two-tier society, and BBM is just the tip of the second tier. In the jungle of applications now available to smartphone users, those that use the internet to offer free voice calls or messaging are emerging from the undergrowth.

Mobile phone networks have been worrying for some time about how these "free" services would eat into their profits once they became mass market. A quick look at the numbers now using them suggests the threat is no longer theoretical.

WhatsApp, based down the road from Google in Mountain View, California, is a text message alternative that works on most handsets, including BlackBerrys, iPhones, Android and Windows Phone devices. Launched in 2009, it uses 3G or Wi-Fi, has been downloaded onto more than 10m phones, and now carries over 1 billion messages a day. (That compares to about 6bn SMS messages sent daily in the US alone.) It can carry text, but also photos and videos, saving a packet on the extortionate fees charged by operators to send a picture message.

Viber, which offers free international calls and text messages, has been downloaded 30m times. Rebtel, with a similar service, has 14m users, and video calling application Tango 20m followers.

"Over-the-top" services (so-called because they piggyback on the mobile phone networks without bringing them any revenue) have come out of the trenches and are rushing headlong towards us.

There are stumbling blocks. Because they are free, these over-the-top services do not yet make big money for their creators. There are exceptions: Rebtel, which can connect you to a phone not on its network and charges for that, has revenues of $60m a year. With a swathe of rival brands competing for our attention alongside similar products from big beasts like Google and Facebook, many will fall by the wayside.

And of course using WhatsApp or Viber is only free if the person at the other end subscribes. Like Skype, which also has a mobile offering, they are only useful for communicating with people you are likely to speak to on a regular basis.

Whatever the hurdles, the numbers are growing. Downloading WhatsApp this week, I found that out of over 900 work and personal contacts on my phone, some 70 are already signed up. Less than 10%, but more than I expected.

At the Telco2.0 conference in November, senior executives from the telecoms industry were polled and predicted text messaging revenues would decline by 37% in three years, and voice revenues by 21% over the same period. They blamed cuts imposed by the European Commission on the price of calling a mobile, as well as competition from rival operators. But the biggest factor, they believed, would be responding to price pressure from over-the-top alternatives.

In fact, 2011 has been a year of mobile phone tariff inflation, as the likes of Vodafone, OrangeO2 try to mitigate the impact of the price cuts imposed by European regulators. and

Working out how to maintain revenues at their current levels is a multi-billion dollar question. But price increases in cash-strapped times may simply drive more consumers into the arms of free alternatives. The two-tier mobile culture is here to stay.

Windows Phone or Windows 8 on tablets? Only one will sell. Guess which

A business traveller using a tablet. Now, is that Office on there? Should it be on there? Will it ever be on there? Photograph: Ariel Skelley/Getty Images

Last week, I popped into a branch of Phones4U and picked up a SIM-free Lumia. The suspense was starting to kill me - was this a device that was going to make Microsoft relevant the smartphone space or not?

(Spoiler: I'm not sure. I've given myself until January 1st to decide whether to keep it, or trade it in for an iPhone 4S.)

But here's something - why on earth is Microsoft insisting that a tablet form factor has to be based on Windows 8? The Windows Phone OS would do the job just fine. Apart from one thing. Money.

Mood music

It's coincidental that I bought a Windows Phone smartphone around the same time that there was some chatter about Windows 8 being 'largely irrelevant' to traditional PC users and Windows 8 tablets being too late to hold consumer interest. The "mood music" on Twitter is not good in this regard … a good number of Microsoft specialists that I follow particularly closely are really starting to talk down Windows 8 tablets. In fact, it feels a little like the knives coming out for RIM around the time that people started to twig that PlayBook was not really all that. Here's a taster between James Kendrick and Mary-Jo Foley: @maryjofoley Windows 8 is increasingly seeming not like a work in progress, but a work in question.

The iPad's not a Mac

Do you remember that there was a time before iPad? I just about do … one thing I dimly remember was that no one proposed putting OS X on the thing. When it was launched, people tended to assume it would be a big iPhone and run the iPhone OS accordingly. Sensible move - small device, small OS.

Last week I wrote a piece on running a Windows-based development environment in the cloud. One standout thing from that experiment is that I only need a proper, full-on personal computer to do development - anything else I do with a computer I could happily write this on an iPad with a decent keyboard. I could happily do most things on an iPad. (Today, Harry MacCracken ran a much-tweeted piece on how the iPad 2 became his favourite computer, which reflects this idea.)

And now I own a Lumia. If I switch it on and play with it, it's pretty obvious that if this had a bigger screen and a Bluetooth keyboard, I wouldn't need a Windows PC in exactly the same way that having an iPad means that I don't need a Mac. If Windows Phone can do (generally) everything that an iPhone can do, a Windows Phone with a 10" screen should be able to do everything that an iPad can do.

So far though the message has been that as well as "immersive", Metro-style apps the big win for Windows 8 on ARM processors (the chip architecture that driving the smartphone revolution) is that you'll be able to run "normal" (what some call "legacy") Windows apps. That's a massive deal, the biggest of all the big deals. If you can by something that looks and feels iPad-esque but which runs Windows apps, that's really something. And it's worth the market waiting for. It's a strong differentiator to the iPad, and like all good differentiators its not easy to emulate.

But what's this? Mary-Jo Foley, the experienced Microsoft reporter, suggests that legacy apps won't be supported on Windows 8.

Oh.

What does that leave us with?

What do you call a tablet that's not an iPad, costs as much as an iPad, has less available software that the iPad, offers about the same user experience (UX) as the iPad, doesn't run normal Windows apps, can run Office apps, and reaches the market in Q4 2012 or Q1 2013? I think they call that a Windows 8 tablet. If I run the "punditry" app on my Lumia, I can see future headlines like "lacklustre sales" and "iPad storms the corporate world".

OK. So what do you call a tablet that's all those things, which runs Windows Phone rather than Windows 8, and is the hands of consumers in Q1 2012? I think you call that a decent competitor to iPad. Refresh my "punditry" app and I see headlines like "iPad sales challenged by Microsoft's tablet play" and "huge increase in MSFT stock price".

Moreover, without native apps, what on earth is the point of a Windows 8 tablet? There's only one differentiator that I can think of: Xbox. Hardly relevant to business.

Microsoft's entrenched thinking that a tablet has to be Windows 8-based is part philosophical, part commercial. Microsoft likes the idea of Windows Everywhere and wants to converge on a point of common engagement.

Commercially though, life is much bleaker. Microsoft makes most of its money from Windows and Office licenses. In fact the Windows division last quarter generated 28% of revenues and 57% of its profits, and the Office division generated 32% of revenues and 65% of its profits.
Yes, I know - that's 122% of profits. The reason it's 122%, not 100%, is because Bing burns money nearly twice as fast as it collects it, and because of other internal financing adjustments, which all subtract from the bottom line. (Here's a breakdown from October.) Here's the point: Windows and Office are the twin pillars of Microsoft's income. You - or Steve Ballmer - mess with them at your (his) peril.

Now, Microsoft charges OEMs far less for Windows Phone licenses (about $15 per unit) than for full-on Windows licenses (on average, working out to about $56 per unit).

Although there isn't much room in the bill of materials for a full-on Windows license in an iPad-competing tablet play in any case, iSuppli suggests it costs around $330 to build an iPad 2; adding a $56 Windows license would up the cost to around $386.

Now send your OEMs out to compete with Apple, selling iPads at retail for $499 (assuming Apple doesn't lower the price next year before Windows 8 tablets come out.) Apple has $169 of headroom to play with in its wholesale pricing to the retailer; the Windows 8 tablet OEM has $113. So Apple starts with an advantage: in a price war, it can make the first move.

That $113 now has to be split with the retailer. Assume that our OEM splits it 50-50 with the retailer, and retains $65 profit on a device sold at retail for $450. Not bad - except that $65 has to cover the logistics, marketing (why is yours better than BigOEM's Windows 8 tablet?), sales, and any variation in component prices. If you want to know how it will probably pan out, look at HP, the world's biggest PC OEM, which makes about $40 per $800 PC (average price) it sells, or 5% profit. (Notice that Microsoft makes about $37 profit per Windows licence - almost the same as HP.)

If the OEM can keep those costs down, say to $20 per tablet, then it's looking at $45 profit on a tablet sold wholesale for $450. And praying Apple doesn't lower iPad prices. Or that a bigger competitor doesn't undercut it. If all this sounds like "Mr Micawber's Tablet Business", well, that's because selling tablets turns out to be as easy as taking sweets from a baby. A baby tiger, being guarded by its mother.

Meanwhile, in this scenario, Microsoft's executives are back in Redmond, happily counting the $37 profit per tablet. For Microsoft, it's the classic "innovator's dilemma" - should you ruin income from one market on the hope of making it big in another? This scenario says: it probably won't.

Yet if Microsoft were to allow OEMs to use the cheaper Windows Phone licence, then the device price before wholesale is $345, and the headroom to the $499 retail price is $154 - much closer to Apple's. That difference gives far more wriggle room in every department - price, components, advertising. What's more, Windows Phone could look rather good on a tablet. It could sell - at least as well as a pricey Windows 8 ARM one. After all, Windows Phone includes Office and Office 365 in ways that tie people in to their existing Office licences.

But for Ballmer and the team, this is the bad news scenario. Only $15 per licence? And even less in profit? Compared to $37 in profit? It's a money-loser, people.

In Microsoft's case, though, there's another reason to wonder about tablets. It's this: will customers stump up for full-on Office licenses for a tablet? We have heard murmurs that Microsoft is apparently developing an Office version for the iPad, but how much will it cost? Apple's kinda-sorta-Office-competitor for iPad - the iWork suite of Keynote, Pages and Numbers - costs £7 a pop. Documents To Go, a popular Office-compatible productivity app for for Android and iOS, goes at £7 for the whole set. Not that businesses buy at retail, but a one-off Office Professional 2010 license from PC World costs £215. So that $499 becomes more than $600, even with a business licence.

Yes, but don't people need Office on tablets? Actually, look at it this way: the iPad has alreadyanything if Microsoft can't sell an Office license to go with it. There's little net gain. Soi maybe there'll be no Office for iPad. Perhaps that will be the differentiator between Windows 8 tablets and the iPad. done pretty well in business without Office, so perhaps there's an argument that it doesn't need Office at all, and won't get it. A device where Microsoft can't make the same per-install profit as it can with Office on a PC also kills off one of the pillars of the business. The device might as well run Android, or iOS, or webOS, or

I'm looking forward however to Microsoft explaining how ARM tablets won't support legacy apps and yet will run Office. That implies a port of Office to WinRT, or a port of the web-based Office 365 to run locally. Neither of those options sound doable in the timescale - I suspect we'll see a Windows 8 on ARM launch without Office. [Then again, Steve Sinofsky showed off Microsoft Word running on an ARM chip at CES in January 2011, so perhaps it will - Tech.Ed].)

Conclusion

Can anyone think of a previously dominant tech company that allowed the market to change under its feet while it thought its way was the right way? If you answered "RIM", we're on the same page. Microsoft's behaviour – the steadfast insistence on cramming Windows 8 onto the iPad-clone – is bleeding time and market share. And the hilarious (well, OK, tragic) thing is that it's unnecessary.

Microsoft could throw rocks out of any building on the Redmond campus and hit ten OEM partners falling over themselves to build as-good-as-the-iPad hardware on which the Windows Phone OS could be run. A little bit of development, a lot of testing and they're off and running. At least that's the (easy) technical side to the problem. Commercially, well, it's easy to say "jump over that cliff, you'll be fine". But having the guts to do it is another thing entirely.

So my Lumia is probably going to remain alone in having Windows Phone. No tablet to match. Oh well.

PlayBook writeoff means RIM's tablet has been a $1.5bn mistake

RIM's PlayBook: people have been sizing it up and finding it wanting, with fewer than a million shipped in three quarters. Photograph: Action Press/Rex Features

The PlayBook is beginning to look like the worst and most expensive decision that RIM, the maker of the BlackBerry smartphone, ever made.

Not only that: preliminary results issued by the company on Friday indicate that it is struggling to maintain pricing of its flagship phones, even though the new devices introduced last quarter were meant to push that pricing up.

The company announced on Friday that it is writing down the value of unsold PlayBook tablets in its warehouses by $485m, which will be taken as a charge against its pre-tax profits for the third quarter which ended in November.

That announcement indicates that RIM has now given up hope of charging the original price - which began at $399 for the 7in version, the same price as Apple's 10in iPad.

Told you so

The Guardian drew attention to the enormous growth in RIM's inventory at the end of the previous quarter, pointing to the way that it had begun to balloon as soon as RIM began receiving finished PlayBooks from Far Eastern factories. Here's the graph:

RIM inventory by value from Dec 2002 - August 2011. Source: RIM accounts

Now RIM has had to recognise the reality: it's not going to get its money back on them. It's unclear whether the writedown effectively takes the value of the tablets in inventory down to zero, so that they can now be sold at a profit. But that would probably be the smart thing.

The big question is, how many PlayBooks are there sitting around that haven't even been shipped to retailers in RIM's warehouses? ISuppli put the device's BOM (bill of materials) cost at $271. Assuming that the PlayBooks it has were valued at that price, and have now been valued at zero, RIM is sitting on 1.79m unsold and unshipped PlayBooks.

That comes after it says it shipped 150,000 in the just-finished quarter, to add to the 200,000 in the previous quarter and the 500,000 in its inaugural quarter.

In other words, RIM seems to have ordered something like 2.65m PlayBooks. For the sake of simplicity, and because some of them won't have been the cheapest model with the $271 BOM, let's assume the real figure is actually 2.5m.

Not shipping, not selling

Of which it has only managed to ship (not sell) about one-third. Of which it has managed to sell… well, the company says in that announcement that more than the 150,000 shipped in the quarter were activated, so the swingeing price cuts must be kicking in at last. (Crackberry.com suggests that actually the figure is more like 5m units sitting in inventory. It all depends what value you take for the per-unit device.)

But the impact on RIM's cash position has been dire. Its second-quarter results (PDF) (to the end of August) show that its cash on hand dropped from $1.99bn at the end of May to $851m at the end of August. That's $1.14bn spent on something; most likely the PlayBook. (In its statement, RIM says that "The Company's cash balance at the end of the quarter increased by approximately $80 million to approximately $1.5 billion." It must be tweaking that by including long-term investments in its "cash balance". We don't think of long-term investments as cash, so it will be interesting, again, to see if RIM has simply revised the value of its long-term investments, even while its cash on hand has fallen.)

And now it says it will have to "increase promotional activity" - in other words, subsidise sales of - the PlayBook "to drive sell-through to end customers". That means more cash paid to retailers to artificially lower the price of the PlayBook.

The company also gave preliminary details of its third-quarter results, indicating that it shipped 14.1m BlackBerrys - a figure that represents a slight fall compared to the 14.2m of a year ago, but a substantial sequential increase from the 10.1m of the previous quarter. Those shipments would have been bolstered by the introduction of new phones.

But RIM also indicated that revenues for the quarter will be below its initial guidance of $5.3bn-$5.6bn. That would be a fall from the year-ago quarter, when revenues were $5.5bn. That, in turn, suggests that average selling prices for BlackBerrys has fallen from the year-ago period. We'll get more when the company reports its full results on 15 December.

So if we assign a sale price (to the channel) of $400 per device - impossible, because that was the retail price - then the PlayBook has contributed, over its life, about $340m to RIM's revenues. That's for a company which has brought in around $14.6bn in reeves in its past three quarters. Even if you price the PlayBook at $500 (which is above its selling price) the number shipped would mean it has only generated $425m, or around 3% of RIM's revenues in the past three quarters.

The PlayBook, in short, has been a flop from start to finish. It has so far cost the company around $1.6bn (the fall in cash plus the write-off) and it hasn't finished.

How did RIM get it so wrong? That's an interesting question. Announced just over a year ago, and the subject of a great deal of hype (RIM's co-CEO Jim Balsillie insisted in January that companies were so excited by the prospect they were delaying iPad purchases), the only thing that the PlayBook seemed to have going for it was that RIM had a great name for security and for accessibility. There was the promise made in February, even before the first one had launched, of an update in the summer - two 4G versions of the PlayBook - also never materialised. (It said in February that they would feature "support for LTE and HSPA+ high speed wide area wireless networks.")

But the software has been late, and RIM's reputation for solidity came unstuck after a series of outages in October, for which it is taking another charge of $50m.

Why, RIM, why?

My own guess? RIM was stampeded by the launch of the iPad into doing its own tablet, because it lost out so badly to the iPhone when that was launched (even though its business thrived on the back of the smartphone boom). In 2007, Balsillie was all but instructed by Vodafone (which had missed out on selling the iPhone in Europe to Telefonica) to build a touchscreen BlackBerry. Voila! The Storm, released in late 2008. It was awful, and left RIM behind in the game.

So when the iPad came out, RIM decided to get ahead of the game. Unfortunately, it didn't get ahead in the right part - the "persuading people to buy your product rather than someone else's" part. (Not to mention the "building your product on a just-in-time basis rather than optimistic three-month forecast" part.) The PlayBook isn't substantially worse than many of the 7in Android tablets out there, apart from having even fewer apps. But there's no reason to buy it ahead of an iPad, if a tablet is what you want.

And there goes another $1.5bn, tossed on the tablet pile, to go with HP's $2bn burnt on the TouchPad. Tablets are turning out to be money-munching monsters for some companies. At least when companies went into making would-be iPod killers it didn't murder them like this.

Woe is the stock

The stock market has completely lost patience with, and faith in, RIM. Its stock has fallen to $16.72 - the same level as May 2004, when it was selling fewer than a million handsets per quarter, though it was at least profitable; when you include the write-offs from inventory and the service outage, the one just past will be a loss-making quarter.

We'll remind you of what Horace Dediu uses as his rule of thumb for the mobile business: if you make a loss, even for one quarter, then you never come back to your former position in terms of market share or profit. So far it has held true across more than a dozen companies which have either exited the phone market or lost their independence after falling into loss.

The prognosis for RIM, therefore, isn't happy. Stock price on its own doesn't mean anything to the company; it doesn't affect how much money it has in the bank, nor in the short term how easy it is to get money, nor how good or bad its products are. The stock price is just a guess at how much money the company will make in the long term.

Right now, the market says that RIM's market capitalisation - its total profits in its future life - is $8.71bn. Subtract the $1.5bn of cash, and you have profits for its life forecast at $7.2bn. That's somewhere between 21 quarters (based on the profits in June-August) and eight quarters (based on the profits in December-February).

Either way, the numbers say RIM isn't long for this world if it doesn't shape up. The PlayBook? It's harmed the company enough. Time to let it go and focus on the smartphones, RIM's oldest, and best, business.

Protect Kids’ Health, Bees and Clean Water in 2012

(Beyond Pesticides, December 6, 2011) After three decades, we are in deep gratitude to our members for their continued support, as well as individuals who enjoy our online resources, like the Daily News Blog, or those who have joined us through online efforts to defend clean water from pesticides, get the antibacterial triclosan out of consumer products, or fight for strong organic standards as an alternative to pesticide-intensive and genetically engineered food.
That’s why we’re reaching out to ask you, as we do twice a year, to support our work and make a donation this holiday season.
Please consider a tax-deductible donation to Beyond Pesticides to help support work in these areas:
– Children’s Health. Children are even more vulnerable to pesticides than adults. Studies link exposure to ADHD, lower IQ and more. We fight to protect kids from pesticides at schools, in the community, and on the food they eat.
– Organic Food. Pesticides pose a hazard to your family, as well as farmworkers and the environment. Our work, including the online Eating with a Conscience guide, pushes for an end to chemical-intensive farming.
– Protecting Pollinators. We need pollinators to grow many of the foods we eat. The disappearance of honey bees identifies a serious flaw in our approach to the use of pesticides.
– Lawns and Landscapes. Huge quantities of toxic pesticides are being applied to lawns and parks for purely aesthetic purposes. Our work supports a nationwide transition from unnecessary chemical use to proven organic methods.
– Public Education. We provide support to grassroots activists, policy makers, and others by phone, online and in person. We also publish the quarterly magazine, Pesticides and You, and maintain an information-rich website.
For a donation of $150, we will send you a copy of the award-winning film Vanishing of the Bees. Thank you for your support. Donate here.

Stop South Korean Company from Helping Iran’s Nuclear Ambition!

A civic advocacy group called the United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) has released an urgent request to the Daelim conglomerate of South Korea to stop continuing business with Iran. Daelim undergoes oil and gas projects with the Shiite regime of Iran that sponsors terrorism and proliferates nuclear weapons.

US Government Accountability Office raised a critical concern that Daelim made profits through illegal commercial activities with Iran. Energy business with Iran is violation of the Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act of 2010 (CISADA), whose explicit goal is “to stop businesses from helping Iran develop its natural gas and petroleum sectors given the control exercised over those sectors by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).” The IRGC is the Iranian government's branch in direct control of Iran's weapons of mass destruction programs, including its nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Daelim'snullifying Western sanctions against Iran's nuclear ambition. Iran constitutes the Axis of Evil along with North Korea. Therefore, Daelim ruins national security of South Korea itself.

In order to stop Iran’s dangerous project, sign the letter of protest from this link that will be sent to Daelim executives and US government officials. Thank you very much in advance for your kind cooperation commercialism is an act of .

Shall We Consider Preemptive Strike against Iran to Stop the Nuclear Project?

The nuclear crisis on Iran poses an unanswered question of the Iraq War to us. People criticized President then George W. Bush that the US-UK coalition invaded Iraq without solid proof of its nuclear possession. However, virtually none of the experts discussed much more vital issue, whether preemptive attack is necessary to stop nuclear proliferation. Actually, Robert Kagan, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, insisted on striking North Korea to stop its nuclear project when he had an interview with a Japanese political journal SAPIO in 2003. Since then, North Korea conducted a nuclear bomb experiment in October 2006, and succeeded in causing some kind of nuclear explosion. The global community failed to stop proliferation to Pyongyang dictatorship.

Let me narrate the overview of this crisis. Tension has become increasingly intensified since Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced to install new centrifuges to acquire highly enriched uranium (“Iran's Nuclear Experiments Raise Alarm at U.N. Agency”; Wall Street Journal; September 3, 2011). While suspicion of nuclear proliferation was growing, Iran’s first nuclear plant in Bushehr started to provide electricity (“Iran’s First Nuclear Power Plant Goes into Operation”; New York Times; September 4, 2011). As the International Atomic Energy released a new report to warn that Iran’s nuclear program has proceeded almost close to develop nuclear weapons, President Ahmadinejad denounced IAEA Director General YukiyaAmano (“Iran Escalates Anti-U.S. Rhetoric over Nuclear Report”; New York Times; November 9, 2011). In view of growing threat to the Gulf area, the Obama administration proposed to supply bunker busters with the United Arab Emirates to contain Iran’s ambition for regional dominance (“U.S. prepares to send ‘bunker-busting’ bombs to U.A.E. to help contain Iran”; National Post; November 12, 2011). Despite tightening pressure on Iran, Israeli experts are skeptic to efficacy of sanctions by the global community. Ephraim Kam, Deputy Director of the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, doubts whether new IAEA report promotes sufficient pressure, because "Iran wants a bomb, or at least the capacity to make a bomb, and is willing to pay the price." Kam says Israel can manage a unilateral strike on "three or four" Iranian nuclear sites, but he also admits that the United States is reluctant to support another war in the Middle East because the Obama administration is withdrawing from Iraq and Afghanistan (“Analysis: Israelis doubt world will stop Iran's nuclear quest”; Reuters; November 15, 2011).

Prior to discussing the impact of sanctions and preemptive attack on Iran, let me talk about the IAEA report. According to this, Iran has completed preparations for high explosive tests and procurement of equipment and materials for nuclear-weapons development. Also, Iran has designed a prototype warhead for Shahab-3 ballistic missile. Therefore, Iran has come quite close to produce a nuclear weapon (“IAEA report: death knell of Iran diplomacy?”; IISS Strategic Comments; November 2011).

In view of such an imminent crisis, we have to discuss efficacy of sanctions and preemptive attack. Currently, the United States, Britain, and Canada declared to impose sanctions to stop financial and petrochemical business activities with Iran. However, experts doubt efficacy of sanctions (“Iran Penalties Insufficient to Curb Atomic Effort: Experts”; Global Security Newswire; November 22, 2011). Former British Chancellor of the Exchequer Lord Norman Lamont warns that broad sanctions can make Iranian businesses more dependent on the Revolutionary Guards that runs nationalized energy sectors and key industries in Iran. Moreover, ex-British Ambassador to the UN Jeremy Greenstock notes that sanctions are often used as a political pressure between verbal attack and military action (“Sanctions on Iran a Failed Approach”; IISS Voices; 23 November 2011). In addition, the Obama administration is reluctant to take punitive measures against Iran’s central bank, though it is widely considered the most powerful economic pressure the United States can use. The White House worries that this will skyrocket oil price, and threaten economic recovery in the United States and Europe (“U.S. Imposes New Sanctions on Iran, but Strongest Weapon Remains Unused”; Global Security Newswire; November 22, 2011).

In addition to economic aspects, we have to consider the nature of Shiite theocracy in Iran. Michael Rubin, Resident Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, points out that the Islamic Republic pursues to spread the revolution throughout the Islam world. The nuclear project is their jihad to achieve their own revolutionary goal (“Iran’s Nuclear Project”; National Review Online; November 8, 2011). For Iran, nuclear weapon is a source of their power and prestige on the global stage. Alireza Nader, Policy Analyst of RAND Corporation, comments that nuclear prestige is worth the price of sanctions as regime survival is the vital goal for Shiite theocracy (“Analysis - For Iran, the sanctions price may be worth paying”; Reuters; November 29, 2011). In pursuit of bargaining power against the West, Iran even conducted a secret experiment for ICBM early this November (“Iran Conducted ICBM Experiment: Report”; Global Security Newswire; November 21, 2011).

Another very important point that we must not dismiss is the policy stance of Russia and China. Michael Singh, Managing Director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, and Jacqueline Deal, President of the Long Term Strategy Group, mention perception gaps between the United States and China. The United States may see China as a key partner in isolating Iran, but China sees Iran as a potential partner in countering U.S. power. Moreover, they quote Chinese Major General Zhang Shiping that Iran is potentially a desirable military base for the Chinese navy in the Middle East (“China's Iranian Gambit”; Foreign Policy; October 31, 2011). In view of rapid growth of Chinese sea power, this cannot be dismissed. In addition to geopolitical rivalries with the United States, Mark Hibbs, Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, pints out that both Russia and China need security and economic partnership with Iran through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Russia wants to export more conventional weapons and nuclear reactors to Iran for big business deal. In order to defend their interests in Iran, Hibbs says Russia may suggest a roadmap for Iran to limit uranium enrichment to the low level (“Waiting for Russia's Next Move on Iran”; Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Q&A; November 22, 2011). The problem is revolutionary nature of the current regime of Iran. Their obsession with national prestige is hard to deal with. While Matthew Levitt、Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, insists that even if sanctions hurt the Iranian economy, it still has generous customers for oil and gas, such as China, Japan, South Korea, some European countries including Italy, Greece, and Spain. Oil price is high enough to sustain the regime. Regardless of damages by sanctions, Karim Sadjapour Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, says “The economic welfare of the Iranian people has never been a top priority of the Islamic Republic” (“Iran's Economy Can Take the Pressure—for Now”; Bloomberg Business Week; November 30, 2011). Therefore it is necessary to discuss tougher measures.

Regarding military strike, Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta argues that it will pose negative impacts to world economy due to unintended consequences associated with the conflict. Instead, Panetta endorses diplomatic efforts through the six party talks to pressure Iran (“Strike on Iran could hurt world economy, US says”; Reuters; November 17, 2011). Certainly, as Panetta argues, military strike is associated with some risks. Sanctions need to be accompanied by other kinds of pressure, and diplomatic negotiation is one of them. However, Russia and China do not feel the treat of a nuclear Iran so imminent as the West and Israel do. This is why we have to consider preemptive strike against nuclear facilities in Iran. Jamie Fly, Executive Director of the Foreign Policy Initiative, argues that diplomatic efforts and sanctions failed to stop Iran’s nuclear program, and it has become increasingly necessary to take military actions. He also stresses harmful impacts of a nuclear Iran, such as insecurity in the Gulf area and Afghanistan, and possible proliferation to terrorist organizations like Hamas and Hezbollah. Apparently, some actions are required, now (“Military action increasingly appears to be the only option that will prevent a nuclear Iran”; US News and World Report's Debate Club; November 16, 2011). As to preemptive attack, William Kristol, Director of the Foreign Policy Initiative, commented “It seems to me the United States has an obligation to act and not leave it to Israel to stop this threat,” in Fox News on November 6.

The global community has not answered the vital question of the Iraq War: whether preemptive attack is necessary to stop nuclear proliferation. It is forgotten homework for policymakers. This is far more important than “misinformation” that left wingers love to trumpet. Remember that Israeli air raid to Osirak nuclear plant in 1981 delayed Saddam Hussein’s dangerous project. The United States should not “lead from behind” when preemptive attack is urgently necessary .

Russian police and troops clash with protesters in Moscow

Russian police tackle an anti-Putin protester in Moscow. Photograph: Denis Sinyakov/Reuters

Police and interior ministry troops have clashed with protesters in Moscow during a second day of protests against the rule of Vladimir Putin.

Around 600 protesters were reported to have gathered near Triumphal Square in central Moscow, but they included many pro-Kremlin youths in blue anoraks who had also turned up, chanting: "Russia, Putin!" while the opposition protesters shouted: "Freedom!" and "Russia without Putin!"

The crowd was held back by dozens of riot police and it appeared that opposition supporters were struggling to make it past police to the rally. Moscow police spokesman Maxim Kolosvetov said about 250 people had been detained as scuffles broke out.

An Associated Press reporter saw at least two flare-type fireworks thrown into a crowd of pro-Kremlin demonstrators gathered outside the Tchaikovsky Concert Hall. It was not immediately clear who had thrown the devices or if they caused any injuries.

Earlier, thousands of police and troops flooded the streets of Moscow before the planned protest. According to the Associated Press, hundreds of police blocked off Triumphal Square, then began chasing demonstrators, seizing some and throwing them violently into police vehicles.

The Interfax news agency reported that among the detained was Boris Nemtsov, a leader of the liberal opposition and fierce critic of Putin.

The latest protests came a day after liberal opposition leaders held their largest ever demonstration, with up to 8,000 people calling for Putin's removal. Riot police violently arrested 300 people in the wake of Monday's protest. Courts began sentencing the arrested on Tuesday, including the opposition leader. Ilya Yashin, who was given 15 days for failing to follow police orders.

Alexey Navalny, a popular anti-corruption activist, also faced a 15-day sentence. He is seen as the de facto leader of a growing movement against Putin and United Russia, the ruling party.

The Kremlin appears to be taken aback by the public challenge to its rule and the widespread protests over allegations of voter fraud in Sunday's parliamentary elections.

Among those deployed on Tuesday was the interior ministry's Dzerzhinsky division, named after the notorious founder of the KGB, which focuses on suppressing mass protests.

Russian internet users uploaded pictures to their blogs and Twitter showing lorries loaded with water cannon lining the streets of Moscow.

"Because of permitted mass gatherings and to prevent possible attempts at unauthorised gatherings, the total number of mobile reserves has been increased, including interior troops," a police spokesman told the Itar-Tass news agency.

The Kremlin organised counter-protests on Tuesday, with up to 15,000 activists from the youth group Nashi, and its subdivision, Stal, taking to the streets of central Moscow.

"We don't want a revolution," said one Stal activist, who only gave his name as Rauf and said he was brought to the capital from St Petersburg for the rally. "We believe in our future – the election was clean."

Opposition protesters have seized on the results of a parliamentary election on Sunday, which saw United Russia's support drop just below 50%. The vote has been marred by widespread allegations of violations and fraud.

Meeting United Russia members on Tuesday, Putin acknowledged the party's loss of support and said it was "inevitable". "They are inevitable for any political force, particularly for the one which has been carrying the burden of responsibility for the situation in the country," he said.

"In today's conditions, the [election] result is good. We see and know what's happening, and it seemed not long ago at all that in countries with a more stable economy and social sphere, millions of people go out into the streets," he said.

Putin has in the past credited the party and government with preventing the sort of protests that gripped parts of the eurozone as the financial crisis worsened. He appeared to directly address the popular nickname that Navalny coined for United Russia – "the party of crooks and thieves".

"They say that the party of power is a party linked with theft, with corruption," Putin said. "If we remember the Soviet years – who was in power then? Everyone called them thieves and corrupted."

The United Russia party was due to gather a protest in support of "clean elections" on Tuesday evening.

Members of the liberal Yabloko party, which failed to win any seats in Sunday's vote, said they would join the anti-government protest later. Similar protests were organised around Russia on Tuesday.

Syria, Egypt and Middle East unrest - Tuesday 6 December

• Arab League says it will maintain sanctions on Syria
• Hillary Clinton to meet Syrian opposition leaders
• Egypt's Salifists mull coalition with Muslim Brotherhood

Qatari Prime Minister and head of state Hamad ben Jassem and Secretary General of Arab League Nabil al-Arabi. The League says it will maintain sanctions imposed on Syria. Photograph: Abdelhak Senna/AFP/Getty Images

Violence appears to be increasing in the central city of Homs, with 31 people killed so far in Syria today, all but one in Homs,. according to activists. The Syrian Observatory of Human rights said the bodies of 34 people killed by pro-Assad militia were dumped in a square in the restive city on Monday. The violence in Homs has become increasingly sectarian, with it-for-tat attacks pitting majority Sunnis against members of President Bashar Assad's minority Alawite sect, according to AP. The reports of deaths cannot be independently verified

• The US ambassador, who was withdrawn from Damascus for his own safety, is returning to Syria. The announcement came as Hillary Clinton was meeting members of the opposition Syrian National Council (SNC) in Geneva. The US state department said Ford, who was withdrawn for his own safety, would demonstrate "that the United States stands with the people of Syria".Clinton stressed the need to protect minorities after democratic transition "regardless of sect or ethnicity or gender".

• The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights claims that the Assad regime has lost control of about a tenth of Syria. Rami Abdulrahman, head of the UK-based group, also told the Guardian a "civilian war" was now a reality in the country. As if to confirm what Abdulrahman said Syrian state media claimed its border guards blocked 35 "armed terrorists" from crossing into the country from Turkey, where the renegade Free Syrian Army (FSA) is based, after a gun battle. Meanwhile, the FSA FSA said it killed 22 troops by bombing two buses carrying troops in Hama. It said the attack was launched in retaliation for the kidnapping of civilians by the security forces. However, the SNC claimed the FSA is sticking to an agreement to stop launching attacks on the regular army.

• At least 34 people have been abducted and killed by pro-government militias in the city of Homs. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights quoted witnesses as saying the bodies had been found dumped in a square in the restive city. The observatory said Monday was one of the bloodiest days since the uprising began with 50 people killed.

• The Arab League said it will maintain sanctions imposed on Syria, after Bashar al-Assad's government demanded the removal of the measures as a condition for admitting observers, Bloomberg reports. The League secretary general Nabil al-Arabi suggested he was not prepared to bargain on the issue. The League "will not lead to suspending Arab sanctions on Syria," he said.

 

Syria agrees to admit observers but with conditions - Monday 5 November

Syrians demonstrating against the Arab League's decision to impose sanctions on the country. Photograph: KeystoneUSA-Zuma/Rex Features

 

• The Assad regime has said that it is willing to sign an Arab League protocol to send international observers into Syria but only on certain conditions. The foreign minister, Walid al-Moallem, said all resolutions passed by the league, in the absence of Syria, namely those suspending it from the bloc, and imposing sanctions, must be annulled. He also said that the plan must be signed in Damascus and that the movement of the observers must be co-ordinated with the Syrian authorities. The Arab League secretary-general, Nabil al-Araby, responded by saying any suspension of sanctions would need to be agreed by the bloc's foreign ministers.

• Activists are demanding the release of Syrian blogger Razzan Ghazzawi, who they say was arrested at the Syrian-Jordanian border while on her way to attend a workshop for advocates of press freedoms in the Arab world. Ghazzawi is one of the few Syrian activists who blogged under her real name.

• The Syrian military has held war games that included test-firing of missiles and air force and ground troop operations "similar to a real battle," state-run media reported Monday. AP described it as "a show of force as Damascus defies pressures over its deadly crackdown on regime opponents".

• Hamas is preparing to abandon its political headquarters in Damascus in a bid to distance itself from the current Syrian regime, according to Haaretz. It reported that Iran was threatening to withdraw funding and/or arms from the Islamist group in light of the threats. Hamas has denied that its operatives have secretly left Syria for other Arab countries and the Gaza Strip.

• Activists said 13 people have been killed in Syria so far today, including a child (WARNING: upsetting footage) and a woman. All of them have been killed in Homs, according to the Local Co-ordination Committees. There have been reports of shelling by tanks and soldiers and Shabiha (thugs supporting Assad) firing on people.

Why charter schools won’t lift student achievement

Prime Minister John Key is defending the introduction of charter schools under a deal with ACT despite National never campaigning on it, saying "that's MMP for you, isn't it?"

No, it’s not. National didn’t need Act to govern. It chose to govern with Act and incorporate charter schools under a deal. I wonder if that was discussed at the “cup of tea”? I guess Key is a little annoyed that Supplementary Member is not going to be our electoral system and we have spent millions on a referendum to get no change.

However, under Supplementary Member, Banks would have still been in parliament, and National would not have needed Act to govern either, but could choose to. I think National probably would have governed with Act under Supplementary Member, so to say “That’s MMP for you” is disingenuous.

What we need to do is lift student achievement. The choices are charter schools and National Standards, both of which are opposed by the education sector. Why?

They don’t lift student achievement. National and Act want to lift student achievement in charter schools but what will happen is that charter schools will select brighter students – perhaps from the highest decile schools in the area, or the higher performing students in low decile schools - to attend their schools, as they get extra funding for current rates of achievement, hardly benefiting the poor and struggling students who miss out.

Neither will it benefit the brighter students at these charter schools, as they are already achievers at the schools they currently attend.

But the Government will be able to say what a success charter schools are, while the lower performing students who charter schools were designed to assist remain in the low decile schools and end up failing NCEA level 1.

I`m really glad my kids go to a high decile school .